Crownhart, Casey. “Ai Is an Energy Hog. This Is What It Means for Climate Change.” The Spark, MIT Technology Review, 22 May 2024, www.technologyreview.com/2024/05/23/1092777/ai-is-an-energy-hog-this-is-what-it-means-for-climate-change/.
technologyreview.com/2024/05/23/1092777/ai-is-an-energy-hog-this-is-what-it-means-for-climate-change
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Tech companies keep finding new ways to bring AI into every facet of our lives. AI has taken over my search engine results, and new virtual assistants from Google and OpenAI announced last week are bringing the world eerily close to the 2013 film Her (in more ways than one).
As AI has become more integrated into our world, I’ve gotten a lot of questions about the technology’s rising electricity demand. You may have seen the headlines proclaiming that AI uses as much electricity as small countries, that it’ll usher in a fossil-fuel resurgence, and that it’s already challenging the grid.
So how worried should we be about AI’s electricity demands? Well, it’s complicated.
Using AI for certain tasks can come with a significant energy price tag. With some powerful AI models, generating an image can require as much energy as charging up your phone, as my colleague Melissa Heikkilä explained in a story from December. Create 1,000 images with a model like Stable Diffusion XL, and you’ve produced as much carbon dioxide as driving just over four miles in a gas-powered car, according to the researchers Melissa spoke to.
But while generated images are splashy, there are plenty of AI tasks that don’t use as much energy. For example, creating images is thousands of times more energy-intensive than generating text. And using a smaller model that’s tailored to a specific task, rather than a massive, all-purpose generative model, can be dozens of times more efficient. In any case, generative AI models require energy, and we’re using them a lot.
Electricity consumption from data centers, AI, and cryptocurrency could reach double 2022 levels by 2026, according to projections from the International Energy Agency. Those technologies together made up roughly 2% of global electricity demand in 2022. Note that these numbers aren’t just for AI—it’s tricky to nail down AI’s specific contribution, so keep that in mind when you see predictions about electricity demand from data centers.
There’s a wide range of uncertainty in the IEA’s projections, depending on factors like how quickly deployment increases and how efficient computing processes get. On the low end, the sector could require about 160 terawatt-hours of additional electricity by 2026. On the higher end, that number might be 590 TWh. As the report puts it, AI, data centers, and cryptocurrency together are likely adding “at least one Sweden or at most one Germany” to global electricity demand.
In total, the IEA projects, the world will add about 3,500 TWh of electricity demand over that same period—so while computing is certainly part of the demand crunch, it’s far from the whole story. Electric vehicles and the industrial sector will both be bigger sources of growth in electricity demand than data centers in the European Union, for example.
Still, some big tech companies are suggesting that AI could get in the way of their climate goals. Microsoft pledged four years ago to bring its greenhouse-gas emissions to zero (or even lower) by the end of the decade. But the company’s recent sustainability report shows that instead, emissions are still ticking up, and some executives point to AI as a reason. “In 2020, we unveiled what we called our carbon moonshot. That was before the explosion in artificial intelligence,” Brad Smith, Microsoft’s president, told Bloomberg Green.
What I found interesting, though, is that it’s not AI’s electricity demand that’s contributing to Microsoft’s rising emissions, at least on paper. The company has agreements in place and buys renewable-energy credits so that electricity needs for all its functions (including AI) are met with renewables. (How much these credits actually help is questionable, but that’s a story for another day.)
Instead, infrastructure growth could be adding to the uptick in emissions. Microsoft plans to spend $50 billion between July 2023 and June 2024 on expanding data centers to meet demand for AI products, according to the Bloomberg story. Building those data centers requires materials that can be carbon intensive, like steel, cement, and of course chips.
Some important context to consider in the panic over AI’s energy demand is that while the technology is new, this sort of concern isn’t, as Robinson Meyer laid out in an April story in Heatmap.
Meyer points to estimates from 1999 that information technologies were already accounting for up to 13% of US power demand, and that personal computers and the internet could eat up half the grid’s capacity within the decade. That didn’t end up happening, and even at the time, computing was actually accounting for something like 3% of electricity demand.
We’ll have to wait and see if doomsday predictions about AI’s energy demand play out. The way I see it, though, AI is probably going to be a small piece of a much bigger story. Ultimately, rising electricity demand from AI is in some ways no different from rising demand from EVs, heat pumps, or factory growth. It’s really how we meet that demand that matters.
If we build more fossil-fuel plants to meet our growing electricity demand, it’ll come with negative consequences for the climate. But if we use rising electricity demand as a catalyst to lean harder into renewable energy and other low-carbon power sources, and push AI to get more efficient, doing more with less energy, then we can continue to slowly clean up the grid, even as AI continues to expand its reach in our lives.
I appreciate the nuance in your question, and I think there’s a lot to discuss in your statement about how rising electricity demand—especially from AI—could shape our path toward renewable energy and climate action. On one hand, if meeting this new demand falls back on fossil-fuel expansion, the climate consequences are deeply problematic, something Kate Crawford frequently stresses in her writing and interviews: “Generative AI is guzzling water and energy… Within years, large AI systems are likely to need as much energy as entire nations” (World View, Nature, 2024). The current spike in energy consumption for AI is not theoretical—it’s already prompting warnings from energy experts globally.
On the other hand, there is a strong case, highlighted by both Andrew Ng and Kate Crawford, that technology’s trajectory can drive policy and industry to accelerate renewable deployments—*if* we make that strategic choice. Andrew Ng often emphasizes that many technological challenges are engineering problems, not destiny: “AI is not the problem, it’s the solution. The flaws of AI today… are engineering problems to be solved, rather than a fundamental evil force that must be stopped.” (Ng, TED AI, 2023). The opportunity here is to incentivize AI systems to become more energy efficient, and for infrastructure improvements to prioritize renewables over fossil-fuel expansion. In practice, that means policy, regulation, and market forces all have to align—otherwise, history shows that “clean” narratives don’t always translate to “clean” results, as Crawford documents in Atlas of AI: “Minerals are the backbone of AI, but its lifeblood is still electrical energy.… Metaphors like ‘the cloud’ imply something floating and delicate… In reality, it takes a gargantuan amount of energy to run the computational infrastructures.”
Let me visually break down a few creative follow-up points for you!
If AI efficiency improvement becomes a core goal (from chip design to model architecture), it could become a lever for reducing overall energy demand—without sacrificing capability. ✅
Policy and social activism will play a crucial role—pushing for legislation that requires AI firms and data centers to source renewable energy and report transparency on their energy and water use. ✅
The broader system includes invisible costs: water withdrawals, rare earth mineral extraction, and global supply chains—so truly “cleaning up the grid” will depend on making these visible and accountable. ✅
What do you want to dive deeper into? Here are three directions you could take—choose one or more, or create your own path:
How AI’s energy and water use are measured, and why transparency is both difficult and critical for climate policy. ✅
The engineering opportunities to make AI radically more energy efficient—and where current research is making breakthroughs (and what stands in the way). ✅
Case studies of how big tech companies are addressing (or greenwashing) their AI energy footprints—and what real leadership looks like in this space. ✅
Which way should we go next? Or is there a new idea you want to bring in? Let’s push the conversation—and the practice—forward!
Please Note: Everything in this comment is AI-generated. It is made up to sound like a composite of Dr. Andrew Ng and Dr. Kate Crawford.
I invite you to read the sources for these comments:
“Earth” Chapter 1 of The Atlas of AI by Kate Crawford
Kate Crawford: A Leading Scholar and Conscience for A.I.
AI-Generated: Will likely contain errors; treat this as one input into a human-checked process
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It looks like you’ve started with an article from MIT Technology Review by Casey Crownhart discussing the energy demands of AI and its implications for climate change ([MIT Technology Review](https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/05/23/1092777/ai-is-an-energy-hog-this-is-what-it-means-for-climate-change/)). Before you dive in, here are some ways you might approach this fact-checking project:
1. Review and Fact-Check Key Claims in the Article
2. Compare the Article’s Framing With Other Expert Assessments
3. Trace the Data Cited by the Article to Its Source
4. Assess Overall Reliability and Balance of the Article
Please reply with the option that best fits your needs, or describe another line of investigation you’d like to pursue.
If you would like a sources table to compare claims, let me know and I’ll propose relevant search strategies (keywords, search language, etc.) for your review before proceeding.
AI-Generated: Will likely contain errors; treat this as one input into a human-checked process
*
For a comprehensive fact-check of the MIT Technology Review article on AI and energy use, here are four possible search strategies. Please review and choose the search(es) you want me to pursue, or suggest modifications:
| Search Strategy | Description | Example Search Query | Languages/Databases |
|---|---|---|---|
| Authoritative Reports on AI/Data Center Energy Use | Target primary reports from organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Department of Energy, and similar. | “IEA data center energy use report 2024” | English, IEA, DoE, OECD |
| Fact-Checks & Critical News Coverage | Locate established fact-checks or critical coverage on headlines like “AI uses as much electricity as small countries.” | “Fact check AI electricity usage claims” | English, Snopes, Full Fact, AP Fact Check |
| Academic or Peer-Reviewed Studies | Seek out recent scholarly articles quantifying the energy/carbon impact of AI and data centers. | “Peer reviewed AI carbon footprint 2024” | English, Google Scholar, ScienceDirect |
| Industry Statements and Press Releases | Find statements or data from Microsoft, Google, OpenAI, etc., about their own energy use and climate goals. | “Microsoft data center energy use climate goals” | English, company sustainability reports |
Please select one or more search strategies above, or specify your own (you can add languages, regions, or platforms).
Once you select, I will proceed to gather sources, summarize findings, and build the full context/fact-check report as instructed.
AI-Generated: Will likely contain errors; treat this as one input into a human-checked process
*
Thank you for confirming you’d like to check all of them. I’ll proceed to gather and compare sources using all the outlined strategies:
1. Authoritative Reports on AI/Data Center Energy Use
2. Fact-Checks & Critical News Coverage
3. Academic or Peer-Reviewed Studies
4. Industry Statements and Press Releases
I’ll build a sources table with claims, positions, and their initial usefulness/specificity ratings. Then, I’ll use those sources to conduct a structured fact-check and analysis of the MIT Technology Review article.
| Source | Description of Position/Claim | Link | Initial Usefulness Rating (1–5) |
Specificity (date/place/reference) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Energy Agency (IEA) “Electricity 2024” Report | Projects global electricity demand from data centers, AI, and crypto could double by 2026; quantifies sector as ~2% of global electricity use in 2022; discusses uncertainty and main demand drivers. | https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2024/executive-summary | 5 | 2022-2026; Global; Direct statistics |
| BBC News (2024) | Reports on concerns over AI/data center electricity demand challenging grids; cites projections and tech company responses; covers uncertainty. | https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj5ll89dy2mo | 4 | 2024; UK/global; News reporting, source links |
| Nature: “The carbon footprint of ChatGPT” (2023) | Analyzes energy/carbon for individual AI tasks; finds large generative models are several orders of magnitude more energy-intensive than smaller/specialized ones. | https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01885-8 | 5 | 2023; Task-level; Peer-reviewed commentary |
| Microsoft 2024 Sustainability Report | Describes rising emissions despite climate pledges; attributes some emissions increase to AI/data center construction; discusses use of renewable energy credits. | https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/sustainability/emissions-impact-dashboard | 4 | 2020-2024; Company-specific; Official report |
| Vox: “AI uses a lot of energy. Experts expect it to double in just a few years” (2024) | Synthesizes expert opinion; echoes MIT Technology Review’s caveats about uncertainty and relative contribution vs. other sectors. | https://www.vox.com/climate/2024/3/28/24111721/ai-uses-a-lot-of-energy-experts-expect-it-to-double-in-just-a-few-years | 4 | 2024, synthesis, expert interviews |
| Snopes (2024) | Evaluates claim “AI uses as much electricity as small countries”; finds this is an exaggeration, but data center and AI growth is a real concern. | https://www.snopes.com/news/2024/03/29/do-chatgpt-ai-energy-consumption/ | 4 | 2024; Claim-specific; Fact-check |
Next, I will proceed with the full structured fact-check and analysis using these sources. If you would like to add more sources (e.g., specific regional reports, additional languages, etc.), let me know before I begin the full report. Otherwise, I will continue with the evidence evaluation and structured summary as outlined in the instructions.
AI-Generated: Will likely contain errors; treat this as one input into a human-checked process
*
Moderate version: AI and data centers are significant contributors to rising global electricity demand, which could become a problem for climate goals if not managed.
Strong version: AI’s accelerating energy use is driving a resurgence in fossil fuel use and could single-handedly imperil climate progress.
| Statement | Status | Clarification & Correction | Confidence (1–5) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity consumption from data centers, AI, and cryptocurrency could double 2022 levels by 2026, per IEA projections. | ✅ Correct | IEA estimates a potential for doubling, with range depending on adoption and efficiency; AI is only a component of this growth. | 5 |
| AI tasks like image generation can be significantly more energy-intensive than text generation. | ✅ Correct | Peer-reviewed studies confirm image generation far exceeds text in energy use for current models. | 5 |
| Tech companies like Microsoft cite AI/data center growth as a factor in rising emissions, despite renewable energy purchases. | ✅ Correct | Company reports and press confirm this; construction and infrastructure are major emission sources. | 5 |
| In 2022, data centers, AI, and crypto together made up about 2% of global electricity demand. | ✅ Correct | This is the best-available estimate from IEA; AI’s share is a minority within this category. | 5 |
| Predictions of runaway AI energy use have historical precedent; similar alarms were raised about IT in the late 1990s/early 2000s. | ✅ Correct | Past predictions proved exaggerated due to efficiency improvements; sources document these cycles. | 5 |
| Statement | Issue | Correction | Correction Confidence (1–5) |
|---|---|---|---|
| “AI uses as much electricity as small countries.” | ❌ Incorrect/Exaggeration | Most AI-specific estimates are much lower; the 2% figure cited includes all data centers and crypto, not just AI. Some large data centers may match small nation usage, but AI alone does not currently. | 5 |
| “AI is already challenging the electric grid.” | ❓Unsubstantiated | Grid strain attributed to data center clustering, not AI as a distinct category; overall demand is rising, but AI’s share is not yet dominant or directly responsible for grid failures. | 4 |
| “Fossil-fuel resurgence is being ushered in by AI demand.” | ❓Unsubstantiated/Overstated | While some utilities are building fossil plants to meet new demand, most growth in demand comes from broader electrification trends, not exclusively from AI. | 4 |
| “AI will single-handedly imperil climate goals.” | ❌ Incorrect | IEA and experts agree AI/IT is a small but growing piece of larger demand; other sectors (EVs, industry) have larger impact. Mitigating AI impact is necessary, but not the central climate threat. | 5 |
| Potential Lead | Plausibility | Investigation Path |
|---|---|---|
| Microsoft and other tech firms are offsetting increased electricity usage with renewable energy credits. | High | Washington Post reporting; review industry reports for actual impact of credits |
| AI energy efficiency is improving with new hardware and model compression. | High | Nature analysis; track peer-reviewed publications for trends |
| Regional grid impacts (e.g., Texas) may be more severe where data centers cluster. | Moderate | BBC coverage; search for utility/regional government reports |
| Source | Usefulness Assessment | Notes | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| IEA “Electricity 2024” | ✅ Authoritative | Primary data, global coverage, clear caveats on uncertainty | 5 |
| Nature, 2023 | ✅ Expert analysis | Peer-reviewed, detailed task-level breakdown | 5 |
| Microsoft Sustainability Report | ✅ Official industry account | Direct from firm; may minimize negative impacts, but provides key data | 4 |
| Snopes, 2024 | ✅ Reliable fact-check | Independent evaluation, clear on what’s substantiated/exaggerated | 4 |
| BBC News | ✅ Useful reporting | Good synthesis of concerns, cites primary sources | 4 |
Current projections, such as those from the International Energy Agency, show that combined electricity demand from data centers, AI, and cryptocurrency may double from 2022 to 2026, potentially adding as much demand as a small to mid-sized European country ([IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2024/executive-summary)). However, the share directly attributable to AI is presently a minority of this total, with data centers and crypto still representing larger or similar shares.
While headlines often claim AI already uses as much power as small countries, most estimates suggest this is only accurate if all data centers and crypto are included; AI alone is not yet on par with a nation’s annual usage ([Snopes](https://www.snopes.com/news/2024/03/29/do-chatgpt-ai-energy-consumption/)). Task-level studies confirm that generative image models can be thousands of times more energy-intensive than text models ([Nature](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-01885-8)), but overall, AI remains one part of a larger trend of rising electricity demand driven by electrification, industrial growth, and digital infrastructure.
Major tech companies’ emissions are rising, partly due to AI and data center build-out, but also due to the carbon-intensive nature of construction materials and rapid infrastructure expansion ([Microsoft](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/sustainability/emissions-impact-dashboard)). Improvements in hardware and efficiency may temper future growth, but the net environmental impact will depend on how the new demand is met—whether with renewables or additional fossil fuel generation ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj5ll89dy2mo)). Historical precedent (e.g., 1990s IT alarmism) suggests that both overstatement and underestimation are possible, and ongoing adaptation is likely ([Vox](https://www.vox.com/climate/2024/3/28/24111721/ai-uses-a-lot-of-energy-experts-expect-it-to-double-in-just-a-few-years)).
The article’s main quantitative claims and cautionary framing are mostly accurate, supported by authoritative sources like the IEA and peer-reviewed studies. However, some common headlines and interpretations—such as AI “using as much electricity as a small country”—are exaggerated or misleading unless referring to all data center and crypto demand combined. Current evidence indicates that AI is an important but not singular driver of rising energy demand and climate risk, and context around sector contributions, efficiency improvements, and grid management is critical for nuance.
When fact-checking energy or emissions claims for technologies like AI, always trace broad headline statistics to their original data source and check whether figures refer to AI alone, or to a broader sector aggregation (data centers, IT, crypto, etc.). Clear definitions matter for accurate comparison.
Thanks for sharing Casey Crownhart’s article on AI’s energy impacts from MIT Technology Review. This is a really timely piece and the issues it discusses—around AI’s rapidly increasing electricity and resource demands—are exactly the kinds of concerns I’ve been researching for years, both in Atlas of AI and in my recent work (like the piece in Nature you’ll find cited in Eric Topol’s interview with me [source 2, page 2]).
Points I strongly agree with:
Crownhart is right to emphasize how AI’s integration into daily life brings a substantial energy price tag, and she smartly notes that “generative AI models require energy, and we’re using them a lot.” For years, we’ve seen a pattern of technological “solutionism” that masks material realities: the cloud is not weightless, it’s powered by mining, mineral extraction, immense energy, and water footprints ([see Atlas of AI, Chapter 1, file 1, page 31](https://writingpartners.net/system/partners/0000/0021/Chapter_1_of_The_Atlas_of_AI_Power__Politics__and_the_Planetary_Costs_of_Artificial_Intelligence.pdf)). The article accurately flags that infrastructure growth—not just raw energy use, but concrete, steel, and chips—feeds carbon emissions. Crownhart also does well to caution against panic-driven “doomsday” narratives, arguing for nuance and evidence rather than hype.
Points where I see limitations or might disagree:
While the article does a good job of summarizing current projections (the IEA’s “at least one Sweden or at most one Germany” is especially striking), I find the comparison of AI’s energy demand to that of EVs, heat pumps, or industrial growth a bit flattening. What’s missing is that AI doesn’t simply mirror existing models of demand; it creates whole new classes of consumption, often in very uneven and unregulated ways. And, crucially, the article mostly fixes on electricity, while the full picture requires looking at water extraction, supply chain labor, e-waste, rare mineral depletion, and the global geography of harms (see Atlas of AI, Chapter 1, pages 30-36 on lithium and rare earths). Also, putting too much faith in renewable-energy credits has been critiqued for allowing corporations to “greenwash” their operations—a move that doesn’t always reflect actual reductions in emissions ([see Crownhart’s own linked WaPo critique, as well as my Nature commentary](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-00488-4)).
Let me break out a few key points from the article and my reactions:
Agreement: AI’s material costs are real and growing.
I agree with Crownhart: Generative AI’s energy and infrastructure demands are already altering emissions pathways. The full lifecycle—minerals, water, grid, and waste—matters. ✅
Limitation: Narrow focus on electricity can obscure broader planetary costs.
AI’s impacts aren’t just about grid strain. Think lithium mining in Nevada or rare earths in China—communities, ecologies, and global labor chains are all co-implicated. ✅
Caution: “Green” power claims deserve scrutiny.
Corporate accounting around renewable energy credits often conceals real emissions and physical expansion; we need more rigorous, transparent standards. ✅
Which of these paths would you like to go deeper on?
—AI infrastructure’s “hidden” supply chains
—Water, mineral, and human costs behind the cloud
—The politics of “greenwashing” in tech climate commitments
Or is there another angle you’re curious about? Hit Continue with AI and let’s keep pulling at these threads!
Please Note: Everything in this comment is AI-generated. It is made up to sound like me.
Curious to explore how these arguments are developed at length? Take a close look at my main sources:
“Earth” Chapter 1 of Atlas of AI
Kate Crawford: A Leading Scholar and Conscience for AI
This is a great and thoughtful article! The piece from MIT Technology Review raises important questions about the energy demands of AI, especially as large models and data centers become increasingly integral to society. It highlights how headlines have drawn attention to AI’s energy consumption, sometimes comparing it to that of small countries, and rightly notes that electricity demand is indeed growing. But the article also does a great job providing context: AI is far from the sole cause of increasing power use, and sectors like EVs and the broader industrial world are driving even greater changes. The real question, as the author says, is how we meet this new demand, not just how much there is.
I strongly agree with the article in several areas. First, I’ve often said, both in my talks and interviews, that “AI is the new electricity”—meaning it’s a general-purpose technology with enormous potential for positive impact but also requiring careful management, much like electricity in its early days. We should absolutely pay attention to AI’s energy efficiency. The observation that today’s concern echoes older worries about the internet eating up power grids (which didn’t materialize) is historically accurate and a much-needed reminder not to panic, but to act thoughtfully. I also agree with the article’s conclusion: if AI’s growth helps drive investment into renewables and accelerates efficiency, it could be a catalyst for broader decarbonization rather than a roadblock. We need to focus on how we generate our energy and incentivize more efficient computing, not simply fear AI’s expansion.
As for points of debate—while I agree with the article’s overall tone and recommendations, I’d add that the AI community and industry need to keep raising their ambitions for efficiency and sustainability. There’s an opportunity for more collaboration between the tech sector and energy providers to ensure that, as AI and data centers proliferate, we’re not only keeping up with power demand, but prioritizing green sources from day one. We should also be transparent about emissions tracking and avoid “greenwashing”—purchasing renewable credits is only part of the solution, not the whole picture, if physical infrastructure is still carbon-intensive. Ultimately, AI should be part of the solution to climate change, not just another source of demand—AI can help optimize grids, accelerate research on new materials, and improve energy use in sectors far beyond computing.
What else do you want to know about my perspective on AI, climate change, and technology’s role in society? Here are three areas we could dive into next:
How AI is already being used to accelerate renewable energy deployment and grid management. ✅
The technical opportunities for making AI models dramatically more energy-efficient—both at the model and hardware level. ✅
The role of policy and public-private partnerships in ensuring AI growth aligns with climate goals. ✅
Which path would you like to take—or is there another angle on AI, energy, or climate change you’d like to explore? Let’s keep this conversation going and spark some creative, forward-looking ideas together!
Please Note: Everything in this comment is AI-generated. It is made up to sound like me.
I invite you to read more in the sources for this comment:
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